GlossyNews.com – Now while I’m no prognosticator in any official sense, what I am is supremely confident. Confident in an Obama victory, and a sound one at that, and here’s why…
I’m risking my reputation and going on the record right now telling you that Obama will win today’s election, and here’s how I know it:
The Ground Game
If the ground game was a ground war, it was won long ago. Obama has twice as many field offices as Romney, and they are staffed largely with enthusiastic and passionate volunteers. There is passion in both camps, but Obama has twice as many offices fully stocked with paid workers as well as a wealth of volunteers.
– Romney Camp Launches Last Minute “Why Vote?” Ad Blitz
– Pennsylvania Poll Workers Suspiciously Republican
– “Well-Hung Chad” Having Banner Day at Florida Poleing Station
– Pennsylvania Poll Workers Suspiciously Republican
There was a great article in The Atlantic that covered the ground advantage, and it produced a chart that looks a little something like this:
And here’s an even better chart from The Daily Beast, where they say Obama has three-times as many field offices working the Get out the Vote (GOTV) game. As you can see, clear advantage Obama.
While this is not a perfect indicator, it is only one of many.
Targeted Emails Rock the Vote
This is a big one. The other night I lost sleep over it. I got an email from the Democrats telling me I had to tell “bargis” to vote. They didn’t know his political affiliation (he’s far right) but they did know that I’ve donated to Democrats, that I know him, and that he’s in a swing state.
And this is only one of three emails I received encouraging me to get my very specific friends in very specific states to vote.
How does Obama know this much about me? Maybe he searched me backwards on Google Circles or Facebook and saw who I know, but this is amazing leg work. If there are 50 million voters in the database, and only 1% do this, that’s still 50,000 votes… enough to swing a tight election or blow a close one out of the water.
I’m also on Romney’s mailing list, since I gave to one of his competitors early on (I consider myself an independent and support candidates on both sides of the aisle,) and I’ll tell you I’ve seen nothing worth mentioning from them. Nothing but generic fundraising requests and red-meat pandering. Certainly nothing of this sophistication, not even within an order of magnitude.
And I’m not alone. Stephen Colbert announced last night that the Obama campaign “found me” and targeted him with emails as well. How they do this is a mystery, but it’s indicative of amazingly deep research and a ground game the Republicans just can’t touch.
Nate Silver Says It’s a Lock
You can talk all you want about which pollsters represent which interests, but nobody in the business has been better at predicting outcomes than the father of PECOTA, Nate Silver. When Morning Joe Scarborough set the over-under at 50%, Nate gladly took the over, with his deep analysis setting the bar at well over 80% at the time.
Mr. Silver put the odds on 11/2/12 at 83.7%, making it an easy money bet for the man who once made his living playing poker online. This wasn’t a bluff, it was a sheer mathematical and statistical probability. Not a certainty, mind you, but every day early voting remained open was another day votes were cast for Obama while the odds remained in his favor.
Today Silver puts Obama’s odds of re-election at 92%, considering the polling that has come in on the very eve of the election. Mr Silver has a track record of being uncommonly accurate. Within a few hours we’ll know how accurate he is.
Obama Leads in National Polls
Sunday’s batch of national polls did not show encouraging news for Gov. Romney. While many had expected that he may win the popular vote while losing the electoral vote, these surveys no longer agreed.
This says that Obama will not only win the electoral college, a school from which even non-conspiracy-theorists agree he never attended, but that he will also win the popular vote. Though probably it’s because of affirmative action.
If InTrade Says it, Everybody Knows It
Rather than asking who you’ll vote for, pollsters should be asking who you think will win. InTrade says Obama will win, and that’s where the money is. If you go with the question of who you’ll vote for, you get the right answer 69% of the time. But if you ask who you think will win that number jumps to 81%.
As of writing this, InTrade has Obama favored by 69.8 percent. That means, despite the fact that national polls show him at 2.7 percent ahead in the national race of who people want to win, he’s actually favored by 39.4 points to win when people are willing to put their money where their mouth is. That means that there are a lot of Romney supporters putting their money down for an Obama victory.
Here is a New York Times story on the predictive power of the question “who do you think will win?”
Pollster State-by-State Ain’t Pretty for Romney
Pollster has been following the state-by-state elections as closely as anyone, and what they’ve found is that:
1 – Obama leads comfortable in more states than Romney does,
2 – There are only so many tossup states left in the mix, and,
3 – Obama leads in the majority of those tossup states.
If you take all the states in yellow and give them to Gov. Romney, he still loses the election.
This looks bad, but in all fairness, it only looks bad if you’re Mitt Romney. And statistically, based on the number of Americans out there in these united states, it is very unlikely that this effects you. You know, since there’s 300-million of you and only one of him. That’s got to be good news for just about everybody.
This might also be bad news for Sheldon Adelson who has channeled tens of millions of dollars into Republican campaigns, including Romney’s, assuming this would stave off the impending DOJ investigation into his suspect casino dealings… but I’m not much of a betting man.
Oh, who am I kidding. I’m a betting man, and since Romney will lose, I’m setting the over/under on Adelson being indicted at 75%… enjoy the last three years of your life in prison… or appeals (more likely appeals… set the over/under on that at 95%).
There are a number of factors I consider when making my decision as to who will win the white house on November 6th, but all of them… yes, ALL of them point to one clear winner; Barack Hussein Obama.
He inherited a disaster of an economy, one in free-fall, and he turned it around, albeit slowly. He instituted a national health care plan which, though far from perfect, finally provided a path to healthcare for tens of millions, and he kept the economy growing with unemployment dipping ever downward.
He hasn’t been a perfect president, but the nation has been strengthened under his watch, despite record levels of congressional obstructionism, and we are on the right path. Jobs are growing, the government is shrinking, and despite what conservatives tell you, the nation will not fall apart under another four years of America’s first black president. After all, he’s only half-black.